Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
