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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.