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Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and suggested the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on recently that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in the country, national TV has broadcast training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the hostilities was over – a action that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened anew.